Are your preferemces cascading?

I had never heard the term “preference cascade” before, but it seems we are in the midst of one with regard to AI safety. A preference cascade occurs when people realize that their private thoughts (concerns, worries, etc) are actually shared by many of those around them, and the tide of public opinion can turn very quickly. Keving Baker, on Quora, describes it like this:

Given a sufficient “A-HA!” moment when they discover that their personal feelings are shared by a large portion of the population their behavior may change dramatically. An example of this is the British colonists before and after publication of Thomas Paine’s Common Sense. A year before the Declaration of Independence, America was full of patriotic British convinced that things could be worked out with King George, but on July 4, 1776 the colonies were full of Americans determined that they needed independence. Another is the relatively recent “Arab Spring.” The catalyst there has been credited to the self-immolation of Tunisian merchant Mohamed Bouazizi in protest of his treatment by government authorities. (Baker 2016)

It is definitely good to see the cascade turning against AI these days, as we are perilously close to a point of no return in AI safety. Recursive self-improvement, swarms, agents, the list goes on and we need to be more proactive. At least there are initiatives to get behind (like the Stop SuperIntelligence bill in the US), although here in Canada our leaders seem more concerned with finding ways to promote AI and the infrastructure that it requires than any sort of safety measures (although they have prompted to setup a Canadian Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute, modeled on the one in the UK).

Baker, Kevin. 2026. “What Is a Preference Cascade?” Quora, February 26. https://www.quora.com/What-is-a-preference-cascade.